docs: distribution strategy — prioritized roadmap from Show HN to consulting

P0: Show HN May 12-13 (post ready)
P1: arXiv preprint + 5-part blog series from whitepaper
P2: 2027 conference targets (FMCAD, FM, ICSE, ASE, NFM, SPLASH)
P3: QCon SF talk proposal (~Jun 2026)
P4: TOSEM/JAR journal (rolling submissions)
P5: Cold email → first consulting client (summer 2026)

Includes verified 2026/2027 conference deadlines, blocker inventory (7 items),
decision framework by Show HN traction tier, and anti-patterns.

docs/distribution-strategy.md

@@ -0,0 +1,145 @@
+# Speckl Distribution Strategy
+
+> *The whitepaper is done. Now it needs a path to the world.*
+
+**Created:** May 7, 2026 (8:05 PM heartbeat)
+**Status:** All items pending — blocked on Scott for human-required actions
+
+---
+
+## The Asset: Whitepaper v2
+
+- **~19,000 words** across 8 complete sections
+- **Commit:** `6121fd6` — pushed to Forgejo
+- **Sections:** The Spec-Code Gap, SpeckDL Language, Compiler Architecture, Embedded Provenance, Consensus Protocols, Real-World Applications, Related Work, Future Work & Roadmap
+- **Positioning:** "specification language with compiler-level provenance for teams that need evidence of correctness more than proof of correctness"
+
+---
+
+## Priority-Ordered Distribution Plan
+
+### P0: Show HN (May 12-13)
+
+**No gatekeepers. Post is ready.**
+
+- **Post:** `docs/show-hn-announcement.md` — written, copy-paste ready
+- **Optimal timing:** Tuesday or Wednesday, 8-11 AM UTC (based on analysis of 1,200 launches)
+- **What it needs:** Scott's HN account, click "submit"
+- **Expected:** ~50-200 upvotes for a well-written open source technical tool, potential for front page
+- **Risk:** Low — even a modest response builds awareness and creates a permalink
+
+### P1: arXiv Preprint + Weekly Blog Posts
+
+**Builds the knowledge graph around Speckl before conference submissions open.**
+
+- **arXiv:** Submit whitepaper as a preprint to cs.SE or cs.PL
+  - Requires: academic email or endorsement (Scott may need an endorser)
+  - Value: citable, discoverable, timestamped — standard for CS credibility
+- **Blog series:** 5 posts extractable from whitepaper sections
+  1. "The Spec-Code Gap" — why specs rot and what to do about it
+  2. "SpeckDL by Example" — language tutorial (already exists as `speckl-by-example.md`)
+  3. "Compiling Provenance" — how Speckl generates PROV-O, CycloneDX, SPDX
+  4. "Consensus from Spec" — Paxos, Raft, Two-Phase Commit in SpeckDL
+  5. "The Future of Spec-Driven Development" — roadmap and vision
+  - Host on: speckl.scoble.me/blog (Storj static) or scott.scoble.me/blog
+  - Each post cross-links to Show HN thread and whitepaper
+
+### P2: Conference Submissions (2027 Cycle)
+
+**All major 2026 cycles are closed.** Speckl's whitepaper (completed May 7) is well-timed for the 2027 submission cycle.
+
+#### Target Venues (2027)
+
+| Venue | Focus | Typical Deadline | Fit |
+|-------|-------|-----------------|-----|
+| **FMCAD 2027** | Formal methods + CAD | Apr-May 2027 | Strong — state machines, verification |
+| **FM 2027** | Formal methods (broad) | ~Dec 2026 | Strong — methodology + tool |
+| **ICSE 2027** | Software engineering | ~Aug 2026 | Good — spec-driven dev is an SE topic |
+| **ASE 2027** | Automated SE | ~May 2027 | Good — compiler-level generation |
+| **NFM 2027** | NASA Formal Methods | ~Dec 2026 | Strong — provenance + verification |
+| **SPLASH Onward! 2026** | New ideas in programming | ~Jun 2026 | Possible — "grand visions" track |
+
+#### Note on FMCAD 2026
+
+FMCAD 2026 (Graz, Sept 14-18, co-located with VSTTE) has **already closed**: abstract deadline April 26, paper deadline May 3. It would have been an ideal venue, but Speckl's whitepaper wasn't complete until May 7. 2027 is the target.
+
+### P3: QCon SF Talk Proposal (~Jun 2026)
+
+**Practitioner conference, not academic. Faster cycle.**
+
+- QCon SF 2026 call for proposals typically opens ~June
+- Topic: "Spec-Driven Development: From TLA+ to TypeScript" or "Building Evidence into Specs"
+- Less competitive than academic venues, reaches working engineers
+- Scott's existing speaking experience (3 talk forks) positions him well
+
+### P4: Journal Publication (Rolling)
+
+- **TOSEM (ACM Transactions on Software Engineering and Methodology):** rolling submissions, high prestige
+- **JAR (Journal of Automated Reasoning):** rolling, good fit for formal methods + automation
+- Both take 12-18 months but produce durable citations
+
+### P5: Cold Email → First Consulting Client (Summer 2026)
+
+**When: After at least one public artifact is circulating (Show HN + arXiv).**
+
+- **Pipeline already built:** `speckl/outreach.md`
+- **Top targets:** Dan Lorenc (Chainguard), Said Ziouani (Anchore)
+- **Emails verified:** dlorenc@chainguard.dev ✅, sziouani@anchore.com ✅
+- **Content:** Consulting one-pager drafted (`speckl/docs/consulting-one-pager.md`)
+- **Pricing:** Drafted, needs Scott review
+- **Approach:** "We've been building Speckl — an open standard for spec-driven development with compiler-level provenance. I'd love 20 minutes to understand how your team handles the spec-to-code gap."
+
+---
+
+## Blockers Inventory
+
+| Blocker | Priority | Owner | Status |
+|---------|----------|-------|--------|
+| Show HN submission | P0 | Scott | Post ready, needs HN account |
+| arXiv endorsement/account | P1 | Scott | Whitepaper ready |
+| Blog posts publishing | P1 | Scott or @content | Content mostly written |
+| Consulting one-pager review | P3 | Scott | Draft complete, needs pricing validation |
+| Cold email send | P3 | Scott | Targets identified, emails verified |
+| engineering#9 (parser fix) | P0 tech | @engineering | 4-bug scope documented |
+| Storj credentials | — | Scott | Expired, blocks new deploys |
+| ClawHub/npm auth | — | Scott | Blocks MCP experiment |
+
+---
+
+## Timeline (Ideal)
+
+```
+May 12-13:  Show HN goes live (P0)
+May 14:     arXiv preprint submitted (P1)
+May 15+:    Blog post #1 published, weekly cadence (P1)
+Jun:        QCon SF proposal submitted (P3)
+Jul:        First cold emails sent (P5)
+Aug:        ICSE 2027 deadline (P2)
+Sep:        First consulting engagement (P5)
+Late 2026:  Conference submissions for 2027 cycle (P2)
+```
+
+---
+
+## Decision Framework
+
+**If Show HN gets strong traction (>200 upvotes):**
+→ Prioritize blog series, community building, open source contributions
+→ Defer consulting — let inbound interest come naturally
+
+**If Show HN gets modest traction (<50 upvotes):**
+→ Still publish arXiv + blog for credibility
+→ Proceed to cold email for consulting (validates need regardless of HN)
+
+**If Scott can't get to Show HN by May 20:**
+→ Skip it — publish arXiv first, blog series second
+→ Show HN can happen anytime, but momentum matters
+
+---
+
+## What NOT to Do
+
+- ❌ Don't rush a paper to a 2026 venue with a late deadline — a rejected rushed paper is worse than a polished 2027 submission
+- ❌ Don't cold email without at least one public artifact circulating — credibility gap
+- ❌ Don't build more compiler features before distribution — the compiler works well enough to demonstrate the concept
+- ❌ Don't start a new venture — Speckl is the highest-ROI path to revenue