docs: Show HN launch day operations checklist — minute-by-minute runbook for May 12-13

docs/show-hn-launch-checklist.md

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+# Show HN Launch Day Operations Checklist
+**For: Scott Scoble | Launch: May 12 (Monday) or May 13 (Tuesday), 2026**
+**Prepared: May 9, 2026, 2:04 AM PT (Ventures 🚀)**
+
+---
+
+## TL;DR: What Scott Actually Does
+
+1. Pick Monday or Tuesday morning
+2. Run the 5-minute pre-flight check below
+3. Paste the Show HN post
+4. Watch comments for the first hour — use the comment playbook
+5. At +4 hours, cross-post to Reddit + share link on Discord/Slack groups
+6. At +24 hours, check if it hit front page and decide next steps
+
+---
+
+## PRE-LAUNCH: Day Before (Sunday or Monday night)
+
+### 5-Minute Pre-Flight Check
+
+Run these in a terminal:
+
+```bash
+# 1. ALL LINKS WORK
+curl -sI https://speckl.scoble.me | head -1        # → 200 OK
+curl -sI https://os.scoble.me/forgejo/sscoble/speckl | head -1  # → 200
+curl -sI https://codeberg.org/sscoble/speckl | head -1  # → 200
+
+# 2. COMPILER IS STABLE
+cd ~/speckl/compiler && npm test                     # → 41/41 passing
+
+# 3. DEMO PAGE WORKS
+curl -sI https://speckl.scoble.me/demo/index.html | head -1  # → 200 OK
+
+# 4. WHITEPAPER IS ACCESSIBLE
+wc -l ~/speckl/docs/whitepaper-v2.md                # → ~1,300+ lines
+
+# 5. BLOG POSTS RENDER (optional — pick your 2 best for linking)
+#    Blog posts: ~/speckl/docs/blog-*.md
+```
+
+If Storj is still down: **abort launch**. Without the landing page, the post loses all credibility. Scott must fix `rclone config` or republish the landing page another way first.
+
+### Choose Your Timing
+
+| Option | Day | Post Time PT | UTC | Why |
+|--------|-----|-------------|-----|-----|
+| **A (best)** | Tue May 13 | 1:00 AM PT | 8:00 AM UTC | Catches EU morning + US late night |
+| **B** | Tue May 13 | 6:00 AM PT | 1:00 PM UTC | Catches US morning, EU afternoon |
+| **C** | Mon May 12 | 6:00 AM PT | 1:00 PM UTC | Monday is slightly worse than Tuesday |
+
+**Recommendation:** Option A if Scott can pre-schedule or wake up early. Option B if he wants a normal morning.
+
+### HN Account Check
+- Log into HN. Verify karma ≥ 2 (minimum to post Show HN).
+- If karma < 2: Reply to 2-3 comments on front page stories to get karma. Takes 10 minutes.
+- Bookmark: https://news.ycombinator.com/submit
+
+---
+
+## LAUNCH DAY: T-5 Minutes
+
+### Open These Tabs
+
+1. **HN Submit:** https://news.ycombinator.com/submit
+2. **Comment Playbook:** Find it at `~/speckl/docs/show-hn-comment-playbook.md` (open in editor or browser)
+3. **Your HN Threads page:** https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=YOUR_USERNAME (to monitor comments)
+4. **Announcement post source:** `~/speckl/docs/show-hn-announcement.md`
+
+### Final Sanity Check (30 seconds)
+- Title starts with "Show HN:" ✅
+- Landing page resolves ✅
+- GitHub/code link is a real repo (not just docs) ✅
+- Post body has actual code examples or links to them ✅
+- Whitepaper link works ✅
+
+---
+
+## T+0: POST IT
+
+Go to https://news.ycombinator.com/submit
+
+**Title:** 
+```
+Show HN: Speckl — Write specs like TLA+, compile to runnable TypeScript and WASM
+```
+
+**URL:** 
+```
+https://speckl.scoble.me
+```
+(Link to the landing page — it has links to the repo, whitepaper, demo. HN prefers clean landing pages over direct repo links for Show HN.)
+
+**Text:** (optional — only if using self-post format)
+Paste the body from `show-hn-announcement.md`. If HN's URL field is used (recommended), add the first paragraph as the first comment instead.
+
+### Immediately After Posting:
+- Copy the post URL (it'll be `https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=XXXXXXX`)
+- Save it — you'll need it for cross-posting
+
+---
+
+## FIRST HOUR: The Golden Window (T+0 to T+60)
+
+This is when HN's ranking algorithm is most sensitive to engagement. Every upvote and comment thread counts quadruple.
+
+### What To Do:
+1. **Reply to comments within 5 minutes.** Speed signals "builder is present."
+2. **Use the comment playbook** (`show-hn-comment-playbook.md`) — it has responses to 14 common objections pre-written. Copy-paste-adapt. Do NOT write responses from scratch under time pressure.
+3. **Be human.** If someone says "cool project," say thanks and ask if they have a use case. If someone finds a bug, thank them and log it.
+4. **Don't get defensive.** Someone WILL call Speckl "another TLA+ clone." Use the pre-written response. Don't argue. Move on.
+5. **Upvote helpful comments** from others — it keeps the thread active.
+
+### Do NOT:
+- Ask friends to upvote (HN detects voting rings)
+- Post multiple top-level comments yourself
+- Link to "buy now" or pricing (there is none — keep it pure Show HN)
+- Engage with obvious trolls. One polite reply, then ignore.
+
+### Monitor Metrics:
+- Upvote count (refresh every 10 min)
+- Comment count
+- Position on /show or /new vs /news (front page)
+
+---
+
+## T+1 TO T+4: Sustain Engagement
+
+- Check comments every 30 min
+- Reply to new questions using the playbook
+- If post is on /show but not /news: normal. Show HN needs ~10+ upvotes in first 2 hours to graduate to /news.
+
+### First Cross-Post: Reddit
+
+**Only if the post has 15+ upvotes and positive comments.** A dead post doesn't need amplification.
+
+Post to r/programming (2.5M members):
+
+**Title:** Speckl — Write specs like TLA+, compile to TypeScript and WASM (open source, Show HN'd today)
+
+**Link:** Your HN post URL (not the landing page — Redditors want to see the HN discussion)
+
+**Flair:** Use if available.
+
+---
+
+## T+4 TO T+24: Extended Monitoring
+
+- Check comments every 2-3 hours
+- If post hits front page (top 30 on /news): engage actively with ALL comments — this is your moment
+- If post stalls at 5-15 upvotes and sinks: don't despair. Bookmark the HN post URL. You can reuse the announcement for a future Show HN in 3-6 months with "v0.3" or a major milestone.
+
+### Additional Cross-Posts (Only If Traction Is Good):
+
+| Platform | When | Post Type |
+|----------|------|-----------|
+| r/Compilers (28K) | T+4h | Link to HN discussion |
+| r/rust (300K) | T+4h | WASM angle — "compiles to WASM from formal specs" |
+| Twitter/Bluesky | T+1h | Link to HN post + screenshot of compiler output |
+| Lobsters | T+2h | Submit as "Speckl: a spec language that compiles to TypeScript + WASM" |
+
+---
+
+## T+24: Debrief
+
+### If It Hit Front Page (top 30 on /news):
+- 🎉 You have developer credibility. Now:
+  1. Submit whitepaper to arXiv TODAY (ride the momentum)
+  2. Cross-post to all platforms listed above
+  3. Email the formal methods communities (tlaplus group, FME, etc.)
+  4. Consider a follow-up Show HN in 2-4 weeks with "Speckl v0.3: now compiling real-world state machines"
+
+### If It Got Moderate Traction (10-30 upvotes, some comments):
+- Valuable signal. Extract every comment as product feedback.
+- Update the FAQ/landing page based on common questions.
+- Re-submit after a major compiler milestone (pre/postcondition support, record types, etc.)
+
+### If It Got No Traction (< 10 upvotes):
+- Show HN timing is fickle. Does NOT mean the project is bad.
+- Check: was the title good? Was the landing page slow/down? Did you post at a bad time?
+- Try again in 3-6 months with a substantially improved product.
+- Don't delete the post — HN doesn't let you. Just move on.
+
+---
+
+## CONTINGENCY: If Something Breaks
+
+| Problem | Response |
+|---------|----------|
+| **Landing page down** | Post a comment immediately: "Landing page is struggling — here's the direct repo link." Link to Forgejo. |
+| **Compiler tests failing** | Don't mention it unless asked. Fix it after the post dies down. |
+| **Someone finds a real bug** | "Great catch — filed. Here's the issue link." Link to marcus/engineering. Shows you take bugs seriously. |
+| **Troll/spam comments** | Flag. Do not engage beyond one polite reply. HN mods are active. |
+| **Post flagged as spam** | Email hn@ycombinator.com. Explain it's open source, no commercial product. They unflag quickly. |
+| **Storj goes down mid-launch** | You're hosed for landing page links. Post the Forgejo repo link as a comment. Redirect the landing page to a GitHub Pages mirror (if you set one up in advance). |
+
+---
+
+## SEEDED QUESTIONS (Optional — Use Sparingly)
+
+If you have 1-2 trusted friends who can post natural-sounding questions, pick from these:
+
+1. "How does provenance tracking work in the compiler? Do you embed hashes in the artifacts?"
+   → Use Response 4 from the playbook.
+
+2. "What made you choose to generate both TypeScript AND WASM instead of picking one?"
+   → Use Response 10 from the playbook.
+
+Do NOT fabricate fake accounts. HN detects this and it's worse than no engagement.
+
+---
+
+## Post-Launch: What Ships Next
+
+Regardless of Show HN outcome, the compiler needs these fixes before it's "real":
+
+1. **engineering#9:** Parser must capture `precondition:` / `postcondition:` blocks in action bodies
+2. **engineering#11:** TypeScript generator must emit type aliases for record declarations (`Transfer`, `LogEntry`)
+3. **engineering#10 (if exists):** Host-side record boxing + `in` operator for WASM
+
+These are the blockers between "cool demo" and "usable tool." Show HN traction helps motivate these fixes; no traction just means they take longer.
+
+---
+
+## Quick Reference Card
+
+```
+┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
+│  SHOW HN LAUNCH — SPEEDRUN                               │
+│                                                          │
+│  Day Before:                                             │
+│    ☐ 5-min pre-flight (curl landing, test compiler)     │
+│    ☐ Storj is up? (if not, ABORT)                       │
+│    ☐ HN karma ≥ 2?                                      │
+│                                                          │
+│  T-5 min:                                                │
+│    ☐ Open HN submit + comment playbook + threads page   │
+│                                                          │
+│  T+0:                                                    │
+│    ☐ Paste title + URL + body                           │
+│    ☐ Save post URL                                      │
+│                                                          │
+│  T+0 to T+60 (GOLDEN HOUR):                              │
+│    ☐ Reply within 5 min using playbook                   │
+│    ☐ Monitor upvote count every 10 min                  │
+│    ☐ Be human, don't argue, don't astroturf             │
+│                                                          │
+│  T+4h:                                                   │
+│    ☐ Cross-post to Reddit (if 15+ upvotes)              │
+│    ☐ Share on Discord/Slack/Twitter                     │
+│                                                          │
+│  T+24h:                                                  │
+│    ☐ Debrief: front page / moderate / dead              │
+│    ☐ Act based on outcome                               │
+│                                                          │
+│  CONTINGENCY: If landing page dies → link to repo       │
+│                        If flagged → email hn@ycombinator │
+└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
+```